Ten Uzbek industries growing quietly, and what the numbers say about each

Every conversation about investing in Uzbekistan seems to arrive at the same four names: gold, cotton and textiles, automobiles, tourism. They matter, but they are also the sectors that already have a narrative. This note looks at ten others, chosen by a simple test: an industry qualifies if at least two independent indicators show momentum and if we can name a real constraint. That second condition is deliberate. A sector with only good news is usually a sector no one has examined closely.

The order below is not a ranking. Each section gives the signal, why it tends to be overlooked, and what to watch.

1. Solar, wind and the grid behind them

The signal. The Ministry of Energy reports that at the end of 2025 total installed generation capacity was about 24,700 MW and combined solar and wind capacity exceeded 6,300 MW, around a quarter of the total. Ministers now speak of at least 7 GW of solar and 12 GW of wind by 2030. International developers are involved: Masdar has reached financial close on three solar projects totalling about 900 MW and is developing a 1.5 GW wind project.

Why it is overlooked. Attention goes to the generating plants and not to what makes them usable. Reported 2025 output from solar and wind varies between roughly 5 and 10 billion kWh depending on the source, a gap worth keeping in mind when reading any energy statistic.

What to watch. Domestic gas production fell about 15% in the first quarter of 2026 while gas imports roughly doubled in value, so demand for balancing, storage, transmission and efficiency is rising faster than generation. The investable gap may be in the grid and flexibility, not in the panels.

2. Pharmaceuticals

The signal. IQVIA data cited in regional press put the market at about $2.14 billion for the twelve months to September 2025, against about $0.89 billion in 2018. That implies compound growth of about 13% a year. Government policy aims to raise the local share of the market to 70% by 2030.

Why it is overlooked. The localisation numbers do not agree. The government reported that locally produced medicines were 43% of the market at the end of 2024. Retail audit data from Proxima put imports at 87% of retail sales by value, and wholesale data point to roughly 90% foreign by value, although local manufacturers hold about 41% by volume because they make low-priced generics.

What to watch. The reconciling explanation is price mix: local plants make cheap high-volume products, imports dominate expensive ones. Reportedly 54 GMP-certified producers are running at only around 60% of capacity, and tariffs on some imported medicines are planned. The opportunity is higher-value formulations and filling existing capacity; the risk is pricing policy.

3. Fruit and vegetable processing

The signal. Uzbekistan exported more than 2 million tonnes of fruit and vegetables worth $1.5 billion in 2024. In the first four months of that year volumes rose 43% year on year. From 2026, a zero VAT rate applies to a list of agricultural products (excluding cotton and grain), with full VAT refunds within three days for producers.

Why it is overlooked. The headline is volume. The more interesting number is price per tonne, which our arithmetic from the same statistics puts at about $365 for Kazakhstan, $776 for Russia, $889 for China, $1,542 for Pakistan and $1,840 for Afghanistan, against a national average of about $750.

What to watch. A fivefold spread in unit values suggests that grading, packaging, cold storage and processing capture most of the margin. Tax incentives, including a 1% social tax rate for sales in modern packaging that runs to 2028 under stated conditions, point the same way.

4. IT services and outsourcing

The signal. The Ministry of Digital Technologies puts IT services exports at about $940 million in 2025 (the president cited roughly $1 billion). First-half exports were $159 million in 2023, $281 million in 2024, $483 million in 2025 and $545 million in the first half of 2026. More than 230 foreign companies joined IT Park as export-oriented residents in the first seven months of 2025 alone.

Why it is overlooked. The 2030 target is $5 billion. Growing from $940 million to $5 billion in five years requires about 40% a year. First-half growth has slowed from 72% in 2025 to under 13% in 2026, which partly reflects a larger base but means the target is demanding.

What to watch. Talent depth and retention, and the extent to which exporters move from staffing to products.

5. Digital finance and the platform layer around it

The signal. Uzum, the country’s first unicorn, was valued at about $1.2 billion in early 2024, $1.5 billion in August 2025 (a round led by Tencent and VR Capital) and, according to reports that differ in detail, around $2.3–2.4 billion after an Omani-led investment in March 2026. Payme says it has 22 million registered users and Click more than 20 million. Internet use reached 89.5% of the population in 2024, up from 46.8% in 2016.

Why it is overlooked. Investors see consumer apps; the quieter opportunity is the infrastructure around them, such as merchant lending, payment orchestration, fulfilment and software for small businesses.

What to watch. Regulation of lending and data, and unit economics once subsidies fade.

6. Logistics, warehousing and transit

The signal. Uzbekistan is one of only two doubly landlocked countries in the world, and trade equals 57% of its GDP. The China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, whose construction began in December 2024, runs about 450–490 km, with a Kyrgyz government cost estimate of $4.7 billion and completion targeted for around 2030. About 40% of the route is bridges and tunnels, and Chinese banks are expected to finance roughly half of the funding package.

Why it is overlooked. The railway is a headline; warehouses, customs-bonded terminals and last-mile networks are not.

What to watch. Estimates of length and cost vary by source and date, a reminder that mega-project figures move. The value to private investors lies in services that cluster around the corridor.

7. Private higher education and skills

The signal. The number of university students rose from 264,300 in 2015/16 to 1,432,800 in 2024/25, 5.4 times as many, according to the Statistics Committee. The World Bank’s gross tertiary enrolment ratio went from 8.3% in 2016 to 59.8% in 2025, above Kazakhstan’s 52.9%. There are around 30 foreign universities or branches. Sources differ on the total number of institutions (211 or 222).

Why it is overlooked. Education is rarely framed as an investable market, yet a country that scales enrolment seven-fold in less than a decade needs teachers, campuses, vocational providers and online services.

What to watch. Quality assurance and graduate employability.

8. Private healthcare and medical services

The signal. A May 2026 presidential decree sets a goal of raising the private sector’s share of medical services to 30% by 2030. From 1 July 2026, licensed private providers can be paid from state medical insurance funds at unified base rates. Market services in healthcare reached 3.55 trillion soums in January–February 2026, up 9.7%, and the government plans to lift state health spending to 5% of GDP within five years.

Why it is overlooked. Healthcare policy rarely makes the business pages.

What to watch. Tariff levels, licensing and the speed of insurance roll-out. An earlier 2024 plan had a 50% private share target, which shows that targets move.

9. Building materials and construction technology

The signal. Large producers made about 9.1 million tonnes of cement in January–July 2024, up 35% on a year earlier, and capacity of roughly 35 million tonnes was expected to rise to about 41 million tonnes by the end of that year. Housing commissioned was 15.9 million square metres in 2025 and 7.7 million in the first half of 2026, up 7.2%. Exports of construction materials were targeted at about $1 billion in 2024.

Why it is overlooked. The sector looks like a commodity. But urbanisation has barely moved, with 50.7% of the population urban in 2016 and 51.0% in 2025, which suggests pent-up migration and demand for quality housing.

What to watch. Differences between “constructed” and “commissioned” statistics, energy costs and the 20% corporate tax rate on cement producers.

10. Critical minerals and the processing chain

The signal. Official figures cite more than 30 types of critical minerals identified and 76 investment projects involving 28 elements, valued at about €2.4 billion. A three-year, $2.6 billion initiative announced by the president focuses on extraction and processing, and a state technological metals company was established in 2024. At the Kalmakyr deposit, reserves were reported at about 2.5 times earlier estimates.

Why it is overlooked. Attention goes to extraction. Commentators note that geology is not the binding constraint; processing capacity and infrastructure are. Reported 2030 production targets for several metals differ between sources.

What to watch. Permitting and energy supply for smelting and refining.

What the ten have in common

Look across the list and a pattern emerges. In almost every case the quiet opportunity sits one step away from the headline: the grid rather than the solar farm, packaging rather than the harvest, the merchant services around the app, the terminal beside the railway, the refinery after the mine. That is a hypothesis about where margins accrue, not a promise that they will.

It is equally clear that several statistics need care. In energy, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals, credible sources disagree by large margins. Before committing capital, it is worth building your own view from primary data and local counsel.

This article is for general information and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. Statistics are as reported by the cited sources on the dates shown and may be revised.